Transition from Global Order to Disorder:
In 1944 the U.S. called 44 allied nations to a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire and offered them global free trade, U.S. market access and full protection of all their maritime supply chains trade routes at zero cost.
There was one condition: The allied nations had to pick side and allow the U.S. to help protect them against the Soviet Union. That is NATO.
The Bretton Woods system lead to a 70-year period of peace and prosperity, where global GDP expanded by a factor of 10 and world population tripled. The system had one flaw: The US won and the Cold War ended.
Post Cold War global system of disorder
For the U.S., Bretton Woods was never about trade but about security. Post Cold War, the U.S. started a strategy of global disengagement. With the current Trump administration, this process got accelerated.
With the shale revolution driving the U.S. to energy independence and the end of the Cold War, the U.S. no longer sees the necessity of paying for security of other countries maritime supply chain trade routes.
The world has entered into a transition period from a global system of order to a "new normal" global system of disorder, which will build up the associated risks of international trade routes along with its value chain and will increase the risk of regional conflicts within the coming 5 - 10 years.
First potential Crisis: Russia
Since the break down of the Sowjet Union, the Russian birthrate collapsed by 60% and will as consequence cut the Russian army by half within the next 5 years. If Russia wants to change the shape of its western border, then it has to do so within the next 3 - 5 years - and that is what Russia is aiming for.
The western periphery of Russia is currently 4'000 km long, has wide open territories and is considered as highly insecure. Russia's ideal would foresee to plug five geographic areas from the Baltic, to the Carpathian, down to the Caucasus, which would reduce the western borderline to 1'000 km only. If the Russians think they can pull this off, then they could protect the new 1'000 km borderline with only half the current size of their army and that's Russia's goal.
Manipulating energy supply to the west of 6.5 mm bbls of oil and 15 bcf of natural gas per day, faces a potential supply risk and if only half of that supply is stuck, then that would add $ 100 per bbl of oil.